Will 2017 become an election year in Pakistan?

January 16, 2017

Federal government announced the first phase of census to be started in March 2017.  Depending upon the preliminary results, besides the relocation of NFC award and provincial quota, number of seats in national assembly may be the pivotal for the sitting government whether to call the election early or delay them. In either case, it seems to be highly unlikely to have elections in first half of 2018.

Here comes two political scenarios:

1. If proportion of national assembly seats is shifting in favour of PML-N, then they will likely to delay the election until new constituencies are formed through proper channel. It will definitely take some time enough to surpass first half of 2018.
2. It it is not turned out to be in the favour of sitting government then in the wake of Panamagate verdict, we can expect an early call of election, somewhere in August/ September 2017.
3. Another point is that a major shift is expected not only in Sind where balance of urban and rural population is likely to shift in favour of urban one, but also in KPK, where a sizeable population has migrated to Karachi.

Therefore, I am giving more weightage to census related political mechanics over the rest of indicators. 

January 23, 2017

So Census is due to start in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur and Ghotki from March 15, and initial results will be ready before Ramazan this year. So for me,  June 2017, is important.
If a feeler is floated from policy makers regarding Karachi as federally administered area then I will not be surprised at all.